Sunday 13 May 2012

Does the future look caliginous for Cameron's Conservatives?

Inflation is rising, unemployment is rising, and the one thing that we actually want to be rising, namely growth, is falling. Yes, I think it is fairly safe to say that the economy of Britain is incredibly fragile, and shows no real signs of changing. Of course, the fingers of blame are already being pointed. Labour are pointing at the Government, the Government are in turn pointing one finger straight back at Labour, and another at Europe, and Europe are kind of too preoccupied to give a rat's arse about Britain's precipitous decline. The fact of the matter is, whoever is to blame, be it the Government, be it the opposition or be it the Euro-Crisis, things need to drastically change, and soon.

Two years ago, during the electoral euphoria of 2010, David Cameron campaigned for the exact change I am referring to. Changes to the NHS. Changes to immigration. Changes to the welfare system. Most importantly, however, changes to the economy. It is fair to say that much to the chagrin of the left, the first three have been accomplished. Though the changes to welfare, healthcare and immigration may not be substantial, and may not be the changes that I want to see, they have certainly happened, and things are certainly changing. Now, when it comes to the economy, David Cameron has broken his promise. Despite the rhetoric peddled by both the Government and the opposition, there have been no real cuts in Government spending, and if there has, they have outweighed by even larger increases. National debt is ballooning, and is forecast to pass £1.5 TRILLION, and there is nobody of importance that is batting an eyelid. Economic responsibility was the promise, but further economic mismanagement is what has been delivered.

Now, this is far from a defection speech. I am confident that with the right guidance, David Cameron can take the Conservatives from mire to majority. However, there are just a few questions surrounding this confidence. Who will offer this advice? What will the advice be? Will it be listened to? Will it be listened to in time, or will it be too late? The first question will, in time, answer itself. I expect someone like Liam Fox or perhaps even a Liberal Democrat, will speak loudly enough to finally be listened to. The second question, however, is still up for debate. Below, I have outlined the economic reforms I think will rescue the British economy, and the Conservative Party:

  1. Real cuts in income tax: The token 5% cut in the top rate of tax was torn apart by the left, and ridiculed by the right. The little economic effect it will have will be outweighed by the political effect it will have on the Conservatives. Any cut in the top rate of tax will always arm the socialists with "posh boys" rhetoric, so if it was going to be cut at all, it needed to be cut properly. Raising the income tax threshold was a good move by the Government, but once again, it wasn't drastic enough. Personally, I'd have liked to see an immediate rise to something in the region of £12,500, followed by further incremented rises planned in the very near future. These cuts would not only be fairer for every member of the British public, but they would incentivise work, boosting growth.
  2. Real cuts in corporation tax: This is an area where the Government can easily improve. I recently read a report by the CPS (Centre of Policy Studies) that asserted that an immediate cut in corporation tax to 20% is absolutely feasible, despite the cries of the left. The loss of revenue, which could turn out to be incredibly low, can be offset by scrapping the higher rate of tax relief of pensions. A massive boost to the economy, with no detrimental effect. So why aren't the Government doing it? Beats me...
  3. Real changes in employment law: This is an area where the Government has actually impressed me. The recent announcements in the Queen's Speech, vague as they may be, sound promising. However, more can always be done. Employment is a privilege, not a right, and the Government must keep that in mind when restrictions are placed around the throats of business. When the noose of regulation is tightened, the recovery is halted, and the economy suffers. The Government should be cutting red tape with the sharpest scissors they can find, and they should be doing it soon. 
  4. Real cuts in public spending: Between 1997 and 2010, the public sector workforce increased by 2,000,000. That is, in my view, completely unacceptable. The way to solve a jobs crisis is not for the state to employ people, but for the state to incentivise businesses to employ people. Public spending of that magnitude is unsustainable, and needs to be modified. Though it's true the private sector are currently unfit to pick up the slack, if the three previous reforms were enacted, that would not be the case. Production costs would fall due to lower corporation tax and the regulatory burden being lifted, and employment would soar. 
These four policy points alone will not revitalise the British economy, I am fully aware of that, but I am hoping that they will play a dynamic part in a wider strategy of drastic supply-side reforms that needs to be employed if the British economy is to recover. Now is not the time for Cameron to cave to the socialist demands of stimulus, indeed it is time for him to do very much the opposite. Speed up the timetable of cuts, in both spending and in tax, and get the British economy moving.